TIMES-Heat-EU is the model that will be developed within the REFLEX project with the main objective to analyse the evolution of the district heat supply within EU. It will be built based on the experience gained with the development and application of the TIMES-Heat-PL model, which is the national model dedicated to the heat market in Poland. This national model splits the heat demand into 48 categories based on building types, their specific heat demand and limitations with access to energy infrastructure (e.g. gas network). In the TIMES-Heat-EU model the geographical coverage will be expanded to all EU countries. At the same time the system topology will be simplified and adjusted to address the main research question i.e. to analyse the potential of district heat and the evolution of cogeneration technologies within the European energy system.

TIMES-Heat-PL model is developed in the TIMES modelling environment for the analysis of the heat system. It uses the TIMES model generator being based on linear programming and belonging to the class of integrated capacity and dispatch planning models. It is also bottom–up demand driven and technology oriented models. The main output is the cost-minimal mix of heat generating technologies and their dispatch. In addition to object based heating systems, also district heating is considered. Combined heat and power plants (CHP) are aggregated into main types according to the fuel used and type of installed turbine (condensing or backpressure). Hourly demand projections for district heat are used (the projections will be provided by FORECAST/eLOAD). The model will be harmonized with FORECAST/eLOAD, ELTRAMOD and ASTRA models. The special focus of TIMES-Heat-EU will be on the investigation of the economic potential of innovative district heat generation technologies and more flexible cogeneration by the use thermal storage systems.

The TIMES-Heat-EU will be mainly applied for modelling the centralized heat supply by heat only plants as well as by combined heat and power plants. It will be used in:

• Identification of the district heat potential and demand in different Member States (in collaboration with FORECAST/eLOAD model).
• Analysis of the role that the centralized heat generation sector could play in enhancing system flexibility and RES integration considering thermal heat storage and optimisation of CHP operation for including the electricity price signals.
• Development of policy recommendations to support the economic feasibility of more flexible cogeneration.

Up to the present the model has been applied for national studies. Some exemplary researches are:

• Analysis of the consumption of natural gas by individual and district heating technologies in Poland till 2035 (Wyrwa et al., 2013).
• Indepth analysis of the residential heat system in Poland with the special focus on district heating (ESA2, 2013).
• Modelling the development of the Polish domestic heat sector with the focus on small biomass installations (Pluta et al., 2013).

Selected references

ESA² (2013): Shaping our energy system – combining European modeling expertise, Karlsruhe: Energy System Analysis Agency (ESA²).

Pluta, M., Wyrwa, A., Zajda, E., Zyśk, J., Drebszok, K., 2013. Modelling the development of the Polish domestic heat sector with the focus on small biomass instalations., Vykurovanie – International Conference: Bratislava.

Wyrwa, A., Zajda, E., Pluta, M., 2013. Using the TIMES model to the analysis of gas consumption in Polish energy system in medium-term horizon, New opening on the gas market: Zakopane.